Not many non-technical awards given out on the first-ever MTV Video Music Awards in 1984 — which included such now-defunct classes as greatest stage efficiency in a video and most experimental video — are nonetheless round in any type practically three a long time later. However the Video Vanguard, a lifetime achievement honor awarded to an artist for his or her “excellent contributions and profound impression on music video and fashionable tradition,” has not solely survived, it’s arguably come to rival video of the 12 months as probably the most anticipated award of the evening.
Whereas not given out constantly — a few years had been skipped within the ’90s and ’00s, in addition to the COVID-stricken first two years of the 2020s — the award (formally named the Michael Jackson Video Vanguard in 1991) has developed from the ’80s, when it was given out to administrators and technicians in addition to artists (typically in the identical 12 months), to the previous decade, the place it has come to be a solo artist-specific honor. Beginning with Justin Timberlake in 2013, the award has additionally come to be accompanied by an prolonged efficiency from the recipient, often that includes a career-spanning medley of hits.
Final 12 months, Nicki Minaj turned the twenty sixth recording artist to win the award, an inventory of performers that dates again to The Beatles and David Bowie on the first-ever VMAs, and likewise contains such legendary names as Janet Jackson, Madonna, U2, Britney Spears, Beyoncé, Ye and Rihanna. Earlier than Minaj, the newest inductee was Missy Elliott in 2019, after a web based motion that criticized the channel for not rewarding her beforehand gained viral momentum. Exterior of the Video Vanguard award, different artists who’ve obtained career-saluting honors from the VMAs this decade embody Girl Gaga (recipient of the “Tricon” award in 2020), Foo Fighters and Crimson Sizzling Chilli Peppers (each named “International Icon,” in 2021 and 2022, respectively).
With Billboard having confirmed that the award might be handed out once more in 2023, we figured it was time to look into among the viable candidates for this 12 months’s honors. From least prone to probably, right here’s how we break down the most effective choices.
Extra reporting by Paul Grein.
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Katy Perry
Why Her? When music movies skilled a cultural revival within the booming pop years of the late ’00s and early ’10s, Perry’s clips had been very a lot on the forefront: colourful, playful, eye-popping visuals that helped make her a celebrity and an MTV icon of the occasions — in addition to a video of the 12 months winner in 2011 for “Firework.”
However Perhaps Not: Perry’s cultural capital isn’t precisely at its top in 2023, and whereas pop followers stay nostalgic for her imperial part, there have been additionally some clips in there they won’t be so eager to revisit.
Chance: Low
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Kendrick Lamar
Why Him? Lamar has constantly confirmed himself one of the very important and inventive music video artists of the previous decade — with a VMAs historical past that features each probably the most explosive efficiency of the 2017 awards and a video of the 12 months win that very same evening for his “Humble.”
However Perhaps Not: Anybody seen Mr. Morale on MTV not too long ago? In all probability not, since he hasn’t carried out or made a serious look on the awards since these 2017 ceremonies — not even final 12 months, when he was a seven-time nominee — suggesting his profession priorities might presently lie elsewhere. And with the Mr. Morale album cycle and accompanying tour dates formally wrapping quickly, there’s not a lot for him left to advertise in the meanwhile.
Chance: Low.
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The Weeknd
Why Him? Few pop artists of the previous decade have been as profitable — or as invested in their very own success — as The Weeknd. He’s a three-time video of the 12 months nominee on the VMAs, together with a win for his world-conquering “Blinding Lights” in 2020, and he’s confirmed his dwell bonafides on some fairly massive levels already.
However Perhaps Not: As many wins as he’s had this decade, The Weeknd’s had some losses to match — and the mixture has left him a bit of too overexposed of late for one more career-spanning efficiency to garner a ton of pleasure in 2023.
Chance: Low to medium.
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Ariana Grande
Why Her? Grande’s been an MTV fixture for a decade, with three video of the 12 months nominations (although no wins thus far), and a constant dedication to high-quality music movies. And in contrast to her just-mentioned frequent duet associate, Grande has been principally absent from the highlight the final couple years, which might make this an ideal time for a reintroduction.
However Perhaps Not: Whether or not she truly needs any such reintroduction proper now stays to be seen — there’s no introduced plans for brand spanking new music, and with a high-profile breakup (and higher-profile return to the courting world) dominating the headlines not too long ago, she will not be up for taking such an enormous stage proper now.
Chance: Low to medium.
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Jonas Brothers
Why Them? A still-beloved pop act with loads of hits new and outdated to their credit score, the JoBros would undoubtedly nonetheless carry a sizeable variety of eyeballs to a Video Vanguard efficiency — and on condition that they’ve an bold, career-spanning run of enviornment and stadium dates this 12 months to advertise, they’d definitely have cause to remind these followers they will nonetheless carry it dwell. (And this 12 months’s awards are as soon as once more being held on the Prudential Heart, of their dwelling state of New Jersey.)
However Perhaps Not: Whereas that they had fashionable movies that bought airplay on MTV, it’s nonetheless a distant second on the subject of TV networks the now-man band is related to — and it may be a bit of too jarring for the channel to faux in any other case.
Chance: Medium.
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Bruno Mars
Why Him? Nobody has appeared as dwelling at award reveals over the past decade-plus — whether or not as a performer or nominee — as Bruno Mars, a five-time video of the 12 months nominee who has mainly been on a career-long successful streak, and who may in all probability whip collectively a convincing career-spanning hits medley with quarter-hour prep time (and no microphone).
However Perhaps Not: Mars may not have a lot to advertise outdoors of some upcoming worldwide dates by the point of this September’s VMAs, with the newest leg of his Vegas residency wrapping later this month.
Chance: Medium.
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Selena Gomez
Why Her? Gomez has a stable 15-plus years of hits to her credit score — together with considered one of 2023’s greatest, along with her look on the worldwide smash remix to Rema’s “Calm Down” — and has been teasing plans for brand spanking new music for a lot of 2023, presumably portending her first new album since 2020’s Uncommon.
However Perhaps Not: She additionally has these tough-to-shed Disney associations, and award present levels haven’t at all times been significantly sort to her.
Chance: Medium.
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Drake
Why Him? He’s bought an ongoing tour (and presumably, quickly sufficient, a brand new album) to advertise, and he’s bought extra hits over the previous 15 years than just about anybody — together with six video of the 12 months nominations (although considerably extremely, no wins but). Frequent collaborators Rihanna and Nicki Minaj have already been honored, with Drake himself even presenting the previous; this 12 months could also be The Boy’s flip to obtain.
However Perhaps Not: Drake has had an more and more tenuous relationship with award reveals in recent times, and his in-person presence on the VMAs has been reasonably minimal since these Rihanna honors in 2016. The timing might by no means be higher, but it surely’s potential the present simply doesn’t have the juice to draw Drake’s curiosity anymore.
Chance: Medium to excessive.
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Miley Cyrus
Why Her? It feels just like the timing is true: Cyrus has been a gradual presence on the VMAs for over a decade now, successful video of the 12 months for “Wrecking Ball” in 2014, internet hosting (and asserting a shock album throughout) the subsequent 12 months’s ceremonies and performing a number of occasions since then. And after scoring a Billboard Sizzling 100 No. 1 this 12 months with “Flowers,” she’s the most popular she’s been since that mid-’10s peak.
However Perhaps Not: Cyrus opted to not tour behind “Flowers” father or mother album Countless Summer time Trip — which she defined was extra concerning the rigors of the touring way of life than a declining curiosity in dwell efficiency, however might imply she has much less to advertise than another artists. (Additionally, the Disney factor, although Cyrus shed these associations a lot faster and extra completely than most of her then-peers.)
Chance: Excessive.
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Taylor Swift
Why Her? Does this actually require an evidence? Taylor Swift is the largest pop star on the planet proper now, and in contrast to most artists at (or reasonably, just under) her degree, she’s at all times had time for the VMAs — even displaying up final 12 months to simply accept video of the 12 months for All Too Nicely: The Brief Movie and announce that her Midnights album was coming quickly. There even simply so occurs to be a scheduled break in her Eras Tour for this September — and whereas nobody one would blame her for utilizing that complete month for catch-up sleep, the possibility for a victory lap efficiency on the VMAs to place a cap on her 12 months may be too nice for her to go up.
However Perhaps Not: How a lot Taylor Swift is an excessive amount of Taylor Swift? If we ever do discover out, it in all probability gained’t be by this September 12, anyway.
Chance: Excellent.
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